What's included
Base / Bull / Bear Scenarios
Three-scenario model — base case, upside, and downside — for any major decision.
Sensitivity Analysis
Which variables have the biggest impact on your outcome — and by how much.
Break-Even Analysis
The revenue or volume required to cover costs under each scenario.
Hiring Impact Model
The financial impact of adding headcount — on burn, margin, and cash runway.
Expansion Scenario
The P&L and cash flow impact of entering a new market, product, or channel.
Decision Memo
Written summary of the scenario analysis with a clear recommendation.
Fundraising Scenario
Financial model showing runway, burn, and growth trajectory under different raise amounts and timing — ready for investor conversations.
Monthly Scenario Review
Actuals compared against each scenario every month — so you always know which path you're tracking and when to pivot.
Why most businesses get blindsided
One plan, no contingency
You have a budget. You have no downside case. When something unexpected happens — a big client churns, a supplier raises prices — you're reacting instead of executing.
Decisions made without modeling the impact
Hiring a VP of Sales, opening a new location, raising prices — decisions made without modeling the financial impact first. Some of them work out. Some don't.
Planning cycle is annual
You build a plan in November and don't revisit it until next November. By March, the assumptions are wrong and the plan is useless.
No visibility into cash impact of decisions
You're thinking about revenue impact. You're not thinking about cash impact — which is what actually determines whether you can execute the plan.
Three steps to clean financials.
Identify Key Uncertainties
We work with you to identify the 3–5 variables that most affect your business — revenue growth rate, gross margin, headcount, key customer concentration. These become the levers in your scenarios.
Build Scenario Framework
We build a scenario model with base, upside, and downside cases — plus specific scenarios for the decisions you're facing. Each scenario shows P&L, cash flow, and key metrics.
Ongoing Scenario Updates
As your business evolves, we update the scenarios to reflect new information. When you're facing a big decision, we model it before you make it.
Results that speak for themselves.
Frequently asked questions.
How is scenario planning different from budgeting?
Budgeting produces one plan — your best estimate of what will happen. Scenario planning produces multiple plans — so you're prepared for different outcomes. They're complementary, not competing.
How often do you update scenarios?
Quarterly at minimum, and whenever a significant decision is being made. The goal is to always have a current set of scenarios that reflect your actual business situation.
What decisions is scenario planning most useful for?
Hiring decisions, pricing changes, new product launches, geographic expansion, acquisition evaluation, and fundraising timing. Any decision with significant financial impact benefits from scenario analysis.
Make big decisions with confidence.
Book a discovery call and we'll build your scenario model.